| DEAL PARTIES | PRICE LEVELS | TARGET PERCENTAGES | ODDS | TIMING | CHANGES | COMPS | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target | Acquirer | Target primary listing | Five-day liquidity (USD mn) | Target pre-deal | Target break | Target break w/ RT fee | Target now | Offer | Premium | Gross downside | Downside w/ RT fees | Gross spread | All-in spread | Ann. all-in | Implied gross chance of close | Implied all-in chance of close | Undisturbed date | Profit pool (USD mn) | Official closing guidance | CTFN closing estimate | Target break, 1W %Δ | Implied gross chance of close, 1W Δ | Comp tickers for target |
| Norfolk Southern | Union Pacific | US | 115 | 260.32 | 288.95 | 296.79 | 311.30 | 354.21 | 36.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 10.0% | 34% | 25% | 2025-07-16 | 10,986 | 1H27 | 2027-09-30 | — | — |
CNI
CP
9020.T
AZJ.AX
80%
TXT
HEI044.HK
20%
|
| Warner Bros Discovery | Paramount Skydance | US | 353 | 16.17 | 12.26 | 14.20 | 27.20 | 31.00 | 91.7% | 54.9% | 47.8% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 82.4% | 80% | 77% | 2025-09-11 | 10,744 | 3Q26 | 2026-07-15 | — | — |
CMCSA
CHTR
DISH
ATUS
43%
DIS
CIDM
6758.T
CMCSA
29%
NFLX
DIS
PARA
28%
|
| Electronic Arts | Public Investment Fund | US | 287 | 168.32 | 101.91 | 104.71 | 200.13 | 210.00 | 24.8% | 49.1% | 47.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 13.0% | 91% | 91% | 2025-09-25 | 2,601 | 2Q26 | 2026-09-30 | 18% | -2% |
NTES
RBLX
9766.T
UBI.PA
|
| Penumbra | Boston Scientific | US | 69 | 313.43 | 264.09 | 279.77 | 322.28 | 374.00 | 19.3% | 18.1% | 13.2% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 13.4% | 53% | 45% | 2026-01-14 | 2,352 | 2H26 | 2H26 | 4% | -6% |
AVNT
ALLEI.ST
ITGR
SOLB.BR
|
| ZIM Integrated Shipping Services | Hapag-Lloyd | US | 23 | 22.20 | 46.68 | 47.62 | 25.77 | 35.00 | 57.7% | -81.2% | -84.8% | 35.8% | 35.8% | 70.5% | — | — | 2026-02-13 | 1,511 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | — | — |
MPCC.OL
ODF.OL
1308.HK
MAERSK-B.CO
|
| Kenvue | Kimberly-Clark | US | 345 | 14.37 | 12.82 | 13.23 | 17.22 | 17.72 | 23.3% | 25.5% | 23.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 6.2% | 90% | 89% | 2025-10-31 | 984 | 2H26 | 2026-10-31 | 0% | — |
PG
PRPH
HLN
CL
41%
UL
PG
4911.T
4452.T
27%
PG
UL
ESSITY-A.ST
32%
|
| Brighthouse Financial | Aquarian | US | 18 | 51.09 | 48.64 | 52.03 | 61.46 | 70.00 | 37.0% | 20.9% | 15.3% | 13.9% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 60% | 52% | 2025-01-27 | 693 | 2H26 | 2H26 | — | — |
LNC
MOH
601318.SS
ANTM
|
| Qorvo | Skyworks Solutions | US | 59 | 90.71 | 145.26 | 147.46 | 90.34 | 96.52 | 6.4% | -60.8% | -63.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 4.0% | — | — | 2025-10-24 | 612 | 1H27 | 1H27 | 13% | — |
INTC
6723.T
ON
MU
|
| Allfunds | Deutsche Börse | Netherlands | 2 | 6.64 | 4.86 | 4.98 | 8.40 | 9.17 | 35.0% | 42.1% | 40.7% | 6.7% | 9.1% | — | 86% | 82% | 2025-11-26 | 583 | 1H27 | 2027-03-31 | -5% | -2% |
AMG
STEP
ONEX.TO
80%
NDAQ
LSE.L
ICE
CBOE
20%
MSCI
SPGI
FDS
SSNC
10%
|
| Silicon Laboratories | Texas Instruments | US | 59 | 136.62 | 196.76 | 207.42 | 217.00 | 231.00 | 69.1% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 59% | 41% | 2026-02-03 | 491 | 1H27 | 1H27 | 8% | -13% |
NVDA
QCOM
AVGO
AMD
|
| SkyWater Technology | IonQ | US | 68 | 31.32 | 47.08 | 47.08 | 34.51 | 42.53 | 35.8% | -36.4% | -36.4% | 23.3% | 23.3% | 90.8% | — | — | 2026-01-23 | 480 | 3Q26 | 3Q26 | — | — |
TSM
UMC
GFS
0981.HK
|
| UniFirst | Cintas | US | 40 | 179.77 | 175.14 | 191.36 | 257.99 | 282.42 | 57.1% | 32.1% | 25.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 77% | 73% | 2025-12-11 | 466 | 2H26 | 2H26 | — | — |
VSTS
RTO.L
JSG.L
0
|
| AES | Global Infrastructure Partners | US | 162 | 11.07 | 11.62 | 12.19 | 14.44 | 15.00 | 35.5% | 19.5% | 15.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 83% | 80% | 2025-07-08 | 417 | 1Q27 | 2027-06-01 | 2% | 3% |
VST
NRG
AGL.AX
SSE.L
|
| Allied Gold | Zijin Gold | Canada | 24 | 41.75 | 34.91 | 36.25 | 40.32 | 44.00 | 5.4% | 13.4% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 70.9% | 59% | 53% | 2026-01-23 | 338 | 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-30 | 3% | -0% |
NEM
AEM
AU
NST.AX
|
| CECONOMY | JD.com | Germany | 0 | 3.75 | 3.23 | 3.23 | 4.18 | 4.60 | 22.7% | 22.8% | 22.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 46.4% | 70% | 70% | 2025-07-23 | 253 | 1H26 | 2026-07-31 | 0% | -6% |
7419.T
JBH.AX
HVN.AX
|
| Beazley | Zurich Insurance | UK | 22 | 8.20 | 6.64 | 6.64 | 12.80 | 13.10 | 59.8% | 48.1% | 48.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 95% | 95% | 2026-01-16 | 249 | 2H26 | 2H26 | -16% | 4% |
HSX.L
AXS
RNR
MKL
75%
CB
TRV
HIG
ALL
25%
|
| Webster Financial | Banco Santander | US | 126 | 66.00 | 58.69 | 58.69 | 71.69 | 73.11 | 10.8% | 18.1% | 18.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 90% | 90% | 2026-02-02 | 231 | 2H26 | 2H26 | -2% | -7% |
RF
CFG
HBAN
0
|
| InPost | Advent | Netherlands | 16 | 11.59 | 17.57 | 17.68 | 15.24 | 15.60 | 34.6% | -15.3% | -16.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | — | — | 2026-01-05 | 215 | 2H26 | 2H26 | 43% | — |
FDX
UPS
DPW.DE
2587.T
|
| Qube | Macquarie | Australia | 9 | 4.07 | 3.67 | 3.67 | 5.04 | 5.20 | 27.8% | 27.3% | 27.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 12.4% | 90% | 90% | 2025-11-21 | 211 | 3Q26 | 3Q26 | -10% | 34% |
1199.HK
NS8U.SI
ICT.PS
WPRTS.KL
50%
XPO
EXPD
DSV.CO
CHRW
35%
CONCOR.NS
SNDR
CP
CNI
15%
|
| Schroders | Nuveen | UK | 13 | 4.57 | 3.84 | 3.84 | 5.82 | 5.90 | 29.1% | 34.0% | 34.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 96% | 96% | 2026-02-11 | 182 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | -4% | -0% |
BLK
STT
BK
IVZ
55%
FHI
TROW
BEN
IVZ
25%
GBLB.BR
SAMG
INVE-B.ST
EXO.MI
20%
|
| Organon | Sun Pharmaceutical | US | 45 | 11.26 | 13.22 | 13.22 | 13.35 | 14.00 | 24.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 16% | 16% | 2026-04-24 | 179 | 1H27 | 1H27 | 2% | -20% |
VTRS
|
| TXNM Energy | Blackstone Infrastructure | US | 43 | 51.27 | 52.25 | 54.84 | 59.44 | 61.25 | 19.5% | 12.1% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 8.0% | 80% | 72% | 2025-03-04 | 172 | 2H26 | 2026-09-30 | 10% | -5% |
FE
POR
GNE
DUK
|
| Subsea 7 | Saipem | Norway | 13 | 181.60 | 310.46 | 310.46 | 331.80 | 335.96 | 85.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | — | 84% | 84% | 2025-02-21 | 136 | 2H26 | 2H26 | — | — |
HAL
SLB
NOV
FTI
70%
NEE
D
DUK
SO
30%
|
| Masimo | Danaher | US | 111 | 130.15 | 127.16 | 127.16 | 178.36 | 180.00 | 38.3% | 28.7% | 28.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 97% | 97% | 2026-02-13 | 89 | 2H26 | 2H26 | 3% | -0% |
MDT
ABT
DXCM
100%
6758.T
BO.CO
SONO
35%
ABT
ROG.SW
SHL.DE
TMO
10%
|
| JTC | Permira | UK | 10 | 8.97 | 8.38 | 8.38 | 13.15 | 13.40 | 49.4% | 36.3% | 36.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 7.4% | 95% | 95% | 2025-08-13 | 58 | 3Q26 | 3Q26 | -2% | -0% |
BPT.L
RAT.L
NTRS
SSNC
|
| Clearwater Analytics | Warburg Pincus | US | 50 | 16.69 | 12.24 | 13.49 | 24.36 | 24.55 | 47.1% | 49.7% | 44.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 146.1% | 98% | 98% | 2025-11-10 | 57 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | -8% | 1% |
MSCI
SPGI
FDS
ENFN
50%
TRI.TO
WK
DFIN
SPGI
50%
|
| Janus Henderson | Trian | US | 219 | 41.63 | 41.92 | 43.01 | 51.70 | 52.00 | 24.9% | 18.9% | 16.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 97% | 97% | 2025-10-24 | 44 | 1H26 | 1H26 | -6% | 1% |
FHI
TROW
BEN
IVZ
50%
BLK
STT
BK
IVZ
35%
BLK
STT
IVZ
SCHW
15%
|
| ProAssurance | The Doctors Group | US | 11 | 15.74 | 18.28 | 18.98 | 24.61 | 25.00 | 58.8% | 25.7% | 22.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 12.1% | 94% | 94% | 2025-03-18 | 20 | 2026-06-30 | 2026-06-30 | -0% | 0% |
HSX.L
AXS
RNR
MKL
|
| Olaplex | Henkel | US | 7 | 1.33 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 2.04 | 2.06 | 54.9% | 37.6% | 37.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 97% | 97% | 2026-03-25 | 13 | 2H26 | 2H26 | -4% | 0% |
OR.PA
SBH
ULTA
0
|
| American Woodmark | MasterBrand | US | 8 | 54.32 | 30.20 | 31.87 | 36.00 | 36.80 | -32.3% | 16.1% | 11.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 17.2% | 88% | 84% | 2025-08-05 | 12 | 2Q26 | 2026-06-30 | 1% | — |
009240.KS
BLDR
603833.SS
|
| Stellar Bancorp | Prosperity Bancshares | US | 6 | 32.63 | 31.14 | 31.14 | 36.58 | 36.81 | 12.8% | 14.9% | 14.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 4.8% | 96% | 96% | 2026-01-27 | 12 | 2026-07-01 | 2026-07-01 | -1% | — |
RF
CFG
HBAN
0
|
| Select Medical | Robert Ortenzio | US | 15 | 14.01 | 13.53 | 14.30 | 16.45 | 16.50 | 17.8% | 17.8% | 13.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 98% | 98% | 2025-11-24 | 6 | 2026-06-30 | 2026-06-30 | -0% | 1% |
EHC
USPH
ATIP
55%
HCA
THC
CYH
25%
UNH
DVA
FMS.DE
20%
|
| Veris Residential | Affinius Capital | US | 6 | 15.42 | 13.97 | 15.06 | 18.98 | 19.00 | 23.2% | 26.4% | 20.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 24.0% | 100% | 99% | 2026-02-04 | 2 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | — | — |
CPT
MAA
ESS
UDR
|
| InterRent | CLV Group | Canada | 3 | — | — | — | 13.18 | 13.55 | — | — | — | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | — | — | 2025-03-07 | 0 | 3Q26 | 1H26 | — | — |
CPT
MAA
ESS
|
| NorthWestern Energy | Black Hills | US | 18 | 72.39 | 75.59 | 76.98 | 71.79 | — | — | -5.3% | -7.2% | — | — | — | — | — | 2026-05-11 | 0 | 2H26 | 2H26 | — | — |
NG.L
SRE
FTS
ENGI.PA
60%
ATO
OGS
SR
IG.MI
40%
|
| Teck Resources | Anglo American | US | 154 | 34.31 | 43.38 | 43.85 | 65.55 | — | — | 33.8% | 33.1% | — | — | — | — | — | 2025-09-05 | 0 | 3Q26 | 3Q26 | — | — |
FCX
CSC.AX
ANTO.L
SCCO
70%
S32.AX
NYR.BR
HINDZINC.NS
NEXA
30%
AMR
BTU
ARCH
ARLP
20%
|
| Veeco Instruments | Axcelis Technologies | US | 90 | 30.43 | 53.29 | 54.53 | 60.41 | — | — | 11.8% | 9.7% | — | — | — | — | — | 2025-09-30 | 0 | 2H26 | 2H26 | 13% | — |
ONTO
8035.T
KLAC
ASML.AS
|
| Nürnberger | VIG | Germany | 0 | 47.20 | 46.07 | 46.07 | 120.00 | 120.00 | 154.2% | 61.6% | 61.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | 2025-05-13 | 0 | 2H26 | 2H26 | -4% | — |
601318.SS
ANTM
FFH
LNC
60%
601318.SS
ANTM
FFH
LNC
40%
|
| Essential Utilities | American Water Works | US | 58 | 41.21 | 37.39 | 39.44 | 38.05 | — | — | 1.7% | -3.6% | — | — | — | — | — | 2025-10-24 | 0 | 1Q27 | 1Q27 | 2% | — |
PNN.L
CWT
SVT.L
85%
ATO
OGS
SR
NFG
15%
|
| Axalta Coating Systems | AkzoNobel | US | 30 | 28.18 | 27.73 | 28.22 | 28.44 | — | — | 2.5% | 0.8% | — | — | — | — | — | 2025-11-17 | 0 | 4Q26 | 2026-11-30 | 1% | — |
SHW
PPG
RPM
0
|
| Leggett & Platt | Somnigroup International | US | 21 | 10.26 | 8.37 | 8.85 | 9.56 | — | — | 12.5% | 7.4% | — | — | — | — | — | 2025-11-28 | 0 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | -6% | — |
LZB
SCS
HNI
WSM
50%
MMM
DD
BERY
SEE
30%
MG.TO
LEA
ADNT
JCI
20%
|
| Valaris | Transocean | US | 54 | 62.41 | 62.33 | 64.31 | 100.72 | — | — | 38.1% | 36.2% | — | — | — | — | — | 2026-02-06 | 0 | 2H26 | 2H26 | 7% | — |
SDRL
PTEN
BORR
SFL
|
| NCR Atleos | The Brink’s Company | US | 61 | 40.57 | 47.58 | — | 45.00 | 46.78 | 15.3% | -5.7% | — | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | — | — | 2026-02-25 | 0 | 1Q27 | 1Q27 | 24% | — |
RF
CFG
HBAN
0
|
| Arizona Sonoran Copper | Hudbay Minerals | Canada | 18 | 7.22 | 6.73 | 6.73 | 8.90 | — | — | 24.4% | 24.4% | — | — | — | — | — | 2026-02-27 | 0 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 10% | — |
FCX
CSC.AX
ANTO.L
SCCO
|
| Senior | Tinicum | UK | 5 | 2.96 | 2.74 | 2.74 | 2.86 | 2.98 | 0.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 51% | 51% | 2026-03-03 | 0 | 2H26 | 2H26 | -4% | — |
SPR
MOG-A
HXL
B
|
| Talkspace | Universal Health Services | US | 7 | 4.76 | 5.03 | 5.03 | 5.18 | 5.25 | 10.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 4.9% | 70% | 70% | 2026-03-06 | 0 | 3Q26 | 3Q26 | 13% | -21% |
ACHC
|
| National Storage Affiliates | Public Storage | US | 33 | 30.96 | 29.53 | 29.53 | 42.75 | — | — | 30.9% | 30.9% | — | — | — | — | — | 2026-03-12 | 0 | 3Q26 | 3Q26 | -11% | — |
PLD
REXR
STAG
TRNO
|
| Commerzbank | UniCredit | Germany | 76 | 12.60 | 20.51 | 20.51 | 36.64 | — | — | 44.0% | 44.0% | — | — | — | — | — | 2024-09-10 | 0 | 1H27 | 1H27 | 4% | — |
HBAN
RF
CFG
55%
GS
MS
JPM
BAC
25%
HSBA.L
STAN.L
C
JPM
20%
|
| Boralex | Brookfield Asset Management | Canada | 13 | 28.26 | 36.38 | — | 36.86 | 37.25 | 31.8% | 1.3% | — | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 55% | — | 2026-03-20 | 0 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | — | — |
ORSTED.CO
NEE
NPI.TO
IBE.MC
86%
JKS
SCATC.OL
CWEN
3868.HK
8%
BEP
EBR
NHPC.NS
SJVN.NS
6%
|
| Two Harbors | CrossCountry Mortgage | US | 39 | 9.91 | 10.14 | 10.14 | 12.60 | — | — | 19.5% | 19.5% | — | — | — | — | — | 2025-12-16 | 0 | 2H26 | 2H26 | -0% | — |
NLY
MFA
CIM
IVR
|
| Whitestone REIT | Ares Real Estate | US | 5 | 15.02 | 14.60 | 15.62 | 18.98 | — | — | 23.1% | 17.7% | — | — | — | — | — | 2026-03-05 | 0 | 3Q26 | 3Q26 | 1% | — |
SPG
O
KIM
BRX
|
| SECURE Waste Infrastructure | GFL Environmental | Canada | 10 | 21.36 | 23.67 | 23.67 | 21.68 | — | — | -9.2% | -9.2% | — | — | — | — | — | 2026-04-10 | 0 | 2H26 | 2H26 | 13% | — |
CLH
RSG
GFL
HCCI
55%
PAA
MPLX
KMI
EPD
45%
|
| Globalstar | Amazon | US | 76 | 68.53 | 99.09 | — | 82.01 | — | — | -20.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2026-04-01 | 0 | 2027-12-31 | 2027-12-31 | 10% | — |
VSAT
IRDM
SESG.PA
|
| Avanos Medical | American Industrial Partners | US | 20 | 14.53 | 14.38 | 14.38 | 24.75 | — | — | 41.9% | 41.9% | — | — | — | — | — | 2026-04-13 | 0 | 2H26 | 2H26 | 2% | — |
AVNT
ALLEI.ST
ITGR
SOLB.BR
|
| Sila Realty Trust | Blue Owl | US | 9 | 25.53 | 25.76 | — | 30.57 | — | — | 15.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2026-04-17 | 0 | 3Q26 | 3Q26 | 5% | — |
VTR
WELL
MPW
OHI
|
| TopBuild | QXO | US | 212 | 410.31 | 409.45 | 424.27 | 416.79 | — | — | 1.8% | -1.8% | — | — | — | — | — | 2026-04-17 | 0 | 3Q26 | 2026-09-30 | 0% | — |
OC
CSL
BECN
BMI
70%
FER.MC
ACS.MC
TCL.AX
PWR
20%
GWW
FAST
MSM
POOL
10%
|
| ARC Resources | Shell | Canada | 85 | 25.77 | 25.01 | 25.01 | 30.95 | — | — | 19.2% | 19.2% | — | — | — | — | — | 2026-04-24 | 0 | 2H26 | 2H26 | 8% | — |
COP
EOG
PXD
MRO
|
| Catalyst Pharmaceuticals | Angelini Pharma | US | 81 | 27.37 | 28.20 | 28.20 | 31.17 | — | — | 9.5% | 9.5% | — | — | — | — | — | 2026-04-24 | 0 | 3Q26 | 3Q26 | 5% | — |
VRTX
BMRN
ALNY
RARE
72%
TEV
4502.T
NVS
ROG.SW
28%
|
| KalVista Pharmaceuticals | Chiesi Group | US | 45 | 19.24 | 19.63 | 19.63 | 26.80 | — | — | 26.8% | 26.8% | — | — | — | — | — | 2026-04-28 | 0 | 3Q26 | 3Q26 | 3% | — |
VRTX
BMRN
ALNY
RARE
|
| Global Business Travel Group | Long Lake Management | US | 19 | 5.93 | 5.38 | — | 9.39 | — | — | 42.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2026-05-01 | 0 | 2H26 | 2H26 | -8% | — |
BKNG
EXPE
TRIP
TCOM
|
| Vault Minerals | Regis Resources | Australia | 14 | 4.52 | 4.76 | 4.76 | 4.71 | — | — | -1.0% | -1.0% | — | — | — | — | — | 2026-05-01 | 0 | 3Q26 | 3Q26 | — | — |
NEM
AEM
AU
NST.AX
|
| Emerald | Apollo | US | 11 | 3.54 | 2.27 | 2.56 | 5.00 | — | — | 54.6% | 48.7% | — | — | — | — | — | 2025-12-15 | 0 | 2H26 | 2H26 | 5% | — |
LYV
|
| PSI Software | Warburg Pincus | Germany | 0 | 24.50 | 9.23 | 9.23 | 45.50 | 45.00 | 83.7% | 79.7% | 79.7% | -1.1% | -1.1% | — | — | — | 2025-10-08 | -9 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | -12% | — |
NOW
WDAY
TEAM
MNDY
|
| Kennedy-Wilson | Fairfax Financial | US | 6 | 7.47 | 7.60 | 9.62 | 11.01 | 10.90 | 45.9% | 30.9% | 12.5% | -1.0% | -1.0% | — | — | — | 2025-11-04 | -14 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | -1% | — |
INVH
TCN.TO
AMH
50%
CPT
MAA
ESS
UDR
50%
|
| Mister Car Wash | Leonard Green | US | 39 | 6.01 | 4.10 | 4.21 | 7.08 | 7.00 | 16.5% | 42.1% | 40.5% | -1.2% | -1.2% | — | — | — | 2026-02-17 | -28 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | -9% | — |
VVV
MNRO
BYD.TO
|
| International Personal Finance | BasePoint Capital | UK | 3 | 1.79 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 2.48 | 2.35 | 31.1% | 59.2% | 59.2% | -5.1% | -5.1% | — | — | — | 2025-07-29 | -37 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | -17% | — |
LC
UPST
SOFI
AFRM
|
| Kloeckner & Co | Worthington Steel | Germany | 1 | 6.07 | 8.56 | 8.56 | 12.54 | 11.00 | 81.2% | 31.8% | 31.8% | -12.3% | -12.3% | — | — | — | 2025-12-05 | -158 | 2H26 | 2H26 | 5% | — |
NUE
STLD
CLF
MT
|
| Thermon | CECO Environmental | US | 26 | 49.77 | 51.60 | 53.46 | 67.23 | 57.32 | 15.2% | 23.2% | 20.5% | -14.7% | -14.7% | — | — | — | 2026-02-23 | -277 | 2026-07-01 | 2026-07-01 | 2% | — |
APH
TEL
HUBB
MLI
50%
SEQUENT.NS
ROK
HEXA-B.ST
ABBN.SW
50%
|
| Makino Milling Machine | MBK Partners | Japan | 35 | 7,750 | 8,707 | 8,707 | 13,960 | 11,751 | 51.6% | 37.6% | 37.6% | -15.8% | -15.8% | — | — | — | 2024-12-26 | -277 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | -3% | — |
ITW
PH
IR
DOV
|
| Centessa Pharmaceuticals | Eli Lilly | US | 45 | 28.70 | 28.06 | 28.06 | 39.61 | 43.00 | 49.8% | 29.2% | 29.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 33.3% | 77% | 77% | 2026-03-27 | -100,000 | 3Q26 | 3Q26 | 6% | -2% |
TEV
4502.T
NVS
ROG.SW
|
| G2 Goldfields | G Mining Ventures | Canada | 3 | 5.78 | 5.63 | 5.63 | 11.84 | — | — | 52.4% | 52.4% | — | — | — | — | — | 2026-04-06 | -100,000 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 3% | — |
NEM
AEM
AU
NST.AX
|
| Esperion | ARCHIMED | US | 38 | 1.91 | 1.94 | 1.94 | 3.12 | — | — | 38.0% | 38.0% | — | — | — | — | — | 2026-04-29 | -100,000 | 3Q26 | 3Q26 | 3% | — |
PFE
AZN
NVS
0
|
| DEAL PARTIES | PRICE LEVELS | TARGET PERCENTAGES | ODDS | TIMING | CHANGES | COMPS | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target | Acquirer | Target primary listing | Five-day liquidity (USD mn) | Target original | Target break | Target now | Offer | Premium | Gross downside | Downside w/ RT fees | Gross spread | Implied gross chance of close | Undisturbed date | Profit pool (USD mn) | Target break, 1W %Δ | Implied gross chance of close, 1W Δ | Comp tickers for target |
| Marvell | SoftBank | US | 3,703 | 93.33 | 95.73 | 185.57 | — | — | 48.4% | 48.4% | — | — | 2025-11-06 | 0 | 3% | — |
NVDA
QCOM
AVGO
AMD
|
| Paypal | — | US | 671 | 44.05 | 41.11 | 45.06 | — | — | 8.8% | 8.8% | — | — | 2026-02-23 | 0 | -1% | — |
GPN
XYZ
NAYX
55%
NU
SQ
SOFI
30%
V
MA
GPN
15%
|
| T-Mobile | Deutsche Telekom | US | 598 | 195.39 | 200.33 | 189.30 | — | — | -5.8% | -5.8% | — | — | 2026-04-21 | 0 | 3% | — |
VZ
T
VOD.L
|
| eBay | GameStop | US | 571 | 85.84 | 55.43 | 112.53 | — | — | 50.7% | 50.7% | — | — | 2026-02-04 | 0 | -1% | — |
BABA
MELI
SHOP.TO
|
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings | — | US | 316 | 17.08 | 17.38 | 16.60 | — | — | -4.7% | -4.7% | — | — | 2026-05-11 | 0 | — | — |
RCL
CCL
VIK
0
|
| United Airlines | American Airlines | US | 277 | 95.20 | 99.95 | 95.64 | — | — | -4.5% | -4.5% | — | — | 2026-04-13 | 0 | -3% | — |
DAL
LHA.DE
AF.PA
|
| Estée Lauder | — | US | 184 | 114.23 | 111.46 | 82.26 | — | — | -35.5% | -35.5% | — | — | 2026-02-20 | 0 | -1% | — |
UL
PG
4911.T
4452.T
51%
COTY
ULTA
ELF
OR.PA
31%
COTY
OR.PA
18%
|
| Revolution Medicines | Merck | US | 178 | 79.02 | 82.25 | 148.78 | — | — | 44.7% | 44.7% | — | — | 2026-01-02 | 0 | 2% | — |
GILD
AMGN
BIIB
REGN
|
| APA | Repsol | US | 158 | 24.69 | 26.24 | 37.02 | — | — | 29.1% | 29.1% | — | — | 2025-11-13 | 0 | 12% | — |
COP
EOG
PXD
MRO
|
| Intertek | EQT X | UK | 138 | 38.18 | 29.98 | 56.45 | — | — | 46.9% | 46.9% | — | — | 2026-04-13 | 0 | -13% | — |
TRI.TO
DFIN
WKL.AS
VRSK
|
| Best Buy | GameStop | US | 133 | 63.21 | 70.55 | 56.57 | — | — | -24.7% | -24.7% | — | — | 2026-03-26 | 0 | 1% | — |
7419.T
JBH.AX
HVN.AX
8282.T
88%
LOW
HD
JBH.AX
3048.T
12%
|
| Telecom Italia | — | Italy | 112 | 0.48 | 0.55 | 0.71 | — | — | 22.0% | 22.0% | — | — | 2025-11-06 | 0 | -1% | — |
VZ
T
VOD.L
75%
ACN
NOW
WIT
KD
25%
|
| Telecom Italia | Poste | Italy | 112 | 0.58 | 0.45 | 0.71 | — | — | 36.0% | 36.0% | — | — | 2026-03-20 | 0 | — | — |
VZ
T
VOD.L
75%
ACN
NOW
WIT
KD
25%
|
| Mitsui OSK Lines | — | Japan | 109 | 6,276 | 7,147 | 5,901 | — | — | -21.1% | -21.1% | — | — | 2026-03-17 | 0 | 2% | — |
2343.HK
SB
KEX
9107.T
35%
MPCC.OL
ODF.OL
1308.HK
MAERSK-B.CO
35%
WAWI.OL
DFDS.CO
HOEGH.OL
30%
|
| ABN Amro | KBC | Netherlands | 101 | 25.79 | 19.67 | 32.64 | — | — | 39.7% | 39.7% | — | — | 2025-09-19 | 0 | -6% | — |
HBAN
RF
CFG
0
|
| Kakaku | EQT | Japan | 100 | 2,121 | 1,841 | 3,400 | — | — | 45.8% | 45.8% | — | — | 2026-04-22 | 0 | -3% | — |
BABA
SHOP.TO
ETSY
4755.T
70%
RHI
KFY
MAN
HAYS.L
30%
|
| CooperCompanies | — | US | 99 | 71.97 | 48.73 | 60.53 | — | — | 19.5% | 19.5% | — | — | 2025-10-17 | 0 | — | — |
ALC
BLCO
7743.T
70%
PGNY
IVF
1951.HK
VRLIFE.ST
30%
|
| Generali | BPCE | Italy | 96 | 29.01 | 35.75 | 39.39 | — | — | 9.2% | 9.2% | — | — | 2025-01-15 | 0 | -3% | — |
AIG
CB
TRV
PGR
60%
601318.SS
ANTM
FFH
LNC
40%
|
| Fortune Brands Innovations | — | US | 95 | 54.40 | 45.23 | 36.66 | — | — | -23.4% | -23.4% | — | — | 2026-02-02 | 0 | — | — |
JCI
MAS
BLDR
CRH
50%
JELD
TGLS
NX
INWI.ST
30%
IBP
OC
SSD
GFF
20%
|
| Inhibrx Biosciences | Merck | US | 95 | 84.08 | 81.42 | 117.27 | — | — | 30.6% | 30.6% | — | — | 2026-04-21 | 0 | 4% | — |
BMY
ROG.SW
AMGN
|
| Caesars Entertainment | Tilman Fertitta | US | 94 | 20.77 | 20.12 | 26.77 | 32.00 | 54.1% | 24.8% | 24.8% | 19.6% | 56% | 2026-02-25 | 0 | -2% | -7% |
LVS
MGM
WYNN
65%
MAR
HLT
IHG.L
H
20%
DKNG
KIND-SDB.ST
FLTR.L
888.L
15%
|
| Caesars Entertainment | Carl Icahn | US | 94 | 20.77 | 20.12 | 26.77 | 33.00 | 58.9% | 24.8% | 24.8% | 23.3% | 52% | 2026-02-25 | 0 | -2% | -7% |
LVS
MGM
WYNN
65%
MAR
HLT
IHG.L
H
20%
DKNG
KIND-SDB.ST
FLTR.L
888.L
15%
|
| JetBlue | — | US | 88 | 4.75 | 4.49 | 4.70 | — | — | 4.5% | 4.5% | — | — | 2026-03-25 | 0 | -3% | — |
LUV
RYAAY
SAVE
|
| AvalonBay Communities | Equity Residential | US | 78 | 174.28 | 175.03 | 185.99 | — | — | 5.9% | 5.9% | — | — | 2026-04-27 | 0 | -3% | — |
CPT
MAA
ESS
UDR
|
| LKQ | — | US | 73 | 33.77 | 34.19 | 26.53 | — | — | -28.9% | -28.9% | — | — | 2026-01-26 | 0 | 9% | — |
ORLY
HFD.L
9832.T
|
| TOTO | — | Japan | 72 | 6,025 | 5,516 | 7,235 | — | — | 23.8% | 23.8% | — | — | 2026-02-17 | 0 | 1% | — |
MAS
AOS
WTS
MLI
|
| Teleflex | CVC Capital Partners | US | 63 | 124.75 | 122.05 | 132.43 | — | — | 7.8% | 7.8% | — | — | 2026-04-21 | 0 | 2% | — |
AVNT
ALLEI.ST
ITGR
SOLB.BR
|
| Americold Realty Trust | — | US | 56 | 10.94 | 12.05 | 14.96 | — | — | 19.4% | 19.4% | — | — | 2026-03-27 | 0 | 2% | — |
PLD
REXR
STAG
TRNO
|
| Commvault Systems | Thoma Bravo | US | 55 | 88.87 | 119.39 | 100.34 | — | — | -19.0% | -19.0% | — | — | 2026-04-10 | 0 | 13% | — |
OTEX
ORCL
SAP.DE
CRM
|
| Protagonist Therapeutics | Johnson & Johnson | US | 44 | 65.47 | 76.80 | 104.34 | — | — | 26.4% | 26.4% | — | — | 2025-10-07 | 0 | 3% | — |
BIIB
VRTX
GILD
AMGN
|
| Papa John's | Irth Capital | US | 41 | 36.94 | 36.58 | 33.49 | — | — | -9.2% | -9.2% | — | — | 2026-04-15 | 0 | — | — |
MCD
QSR
YUM
WEN
|
| Euronet Worldwide | — | US | 37 | 74.33 | 69.41 | 69.45 | — | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | 2026-03-04 | 0 | 5% | — |
WU
MGI
WISE.L
RELY
35%
NAYX
GPN
ADYEN.AS
35%
V
MA
GPN
30%
|
| Kinetik | Western Midstream Partners | US | 37 | 44.54 | 49.61 | 50.07 | — | — | 0.9% | 0.9% | — | — | 2026-02-18 | 0 | 2% | — |
MPLX
KMI
EPD
ENB
60%
VLO
PSX
MPC
DINO
40%
|
| C3.AI | Automation Anywhere | US | 33 | 12.93 | 9.69 | 8.83 | — | — | -9.7% | -9.7% | — | — | 2026-01-26 | 0 | -3% | — |
PLTR
SNOW
ESTC
CLVT
|
| Spire Healthcare | — | UK | 28 | 2.08 | 1.86 | 2.21 | — | — | 16.1% | 16.1% | — | — | 2025-09-17 | 0 | -6% | — |
HCA
THC
CYH
0
|
| Alkami Technology | — | US | 26 | 21.10 | 12.34 | 16.50 | — | — | 25.2% | 25.2% | — | — | 2026-01-27 | 0 | -7% | — |
NOW
WDAY
TEAM
MNDY
90%
V
MA
GPN
10%
|
| A2A | ERG | Italy | 25 | 2.43 | 2.23 | 2.35 | — | — | 5.0% | 5.0% | — | — | 2026-02-26 | 0 | -0% | — |
NG.L
SRE
FTS
ENGI.PA
|
| SPS Commerce | — | US | 24 | 56.47 | 49.25 | 50.41 | — | — | 2.3% | 2.3% | — | — | 2026-05-08 | 0 | — | — |
LSPD
TOST
VYX
SHOP
|
| Ocular Therapeutix | Sanofi | US | 23 | 11.26 | 4.81 | 9.32 | 16.00 | 42.1% | 48.4% | 48.4% | 71.7% | 40% | 2026-01-09 | 2,557 | -6% | -2% |
ALDX
GRAY
OXUR.BR
COX.PA
|
| BlueScope | Seven Group Holdings | Australia | 23 | 24.14 | 19.70 | 29.70 | 32.35 | 34.0% | 33.7% | 33.7% | 8.9% | 79% | 2026-01-02 | 914 | 2% | 4% |
NUE
STLD
CLF
MT
60%
NUE
STLD
RS
CMC
40%
|
| Nanobiotix | Johnson & Johnson | France | 23 | 26.55 | 26.08 | 46.08 | — | — | 43.4% | 43.4% | — | — | 2026-03-25 | 0 | 4% | — |
GILD
AMGN
BIIB
REGN
|
| Ardelyx | Zydus Lifesciences | US | 22 | 7.80 | — | 6.43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2026-01-26 | 0 | — | — |
ABBV
TAK
75%
(25%)
|
| Eastern Bankshares | M&T Bank | US | 22 | 17.22 | 24.29 | 19.57 | — | — | -24.1% | -24.1% | — | — | 2025-10-16 | 0 | -4% | — |
HBAN
RF
CFG
0
|
| Puma | Anta Sports | Germany | 21 | 17.01 | 12.38 | 25.52 | — | — | 51.5% | 51.5% | — | — | 2025-11-26 | 0 | -12% | — |
NKE
ADS.DE
UAA
LULU
|
| Whitbread | — | UK | 19 | 25.99 | 23.70 | 23.22 | — | — | -2.1% | -2.1% | — | — | 2025-12-18 | 0 | -5% | — |
HLT
IHG.L
H
CHH
80%
CMG
WING
HABT
JACK
20%
|
| EasyJet | Mediterranean Shipping | UK | 17 | 4.64 | 2.90 | 3.51 | — | — | 17.3% | 17.3% | — | — | 2025-10-13 | 0 | — | — |
LUV
SAVE
RYAAY
0
|
| Perrigo | Stada Arzneimittel | US | 15 | 10.56 | 11.10 | 11.14 | — | — | 0.4% | 0.4% | — | — | 2026-04-07 | 0 | -0% | — |
PG
PRPH
HLN
CL
|
| Select Medical | Robert Ortenzio | US | 15 | 13.65 | 16.26 | 16.45 | 16.20 | 18.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | -1.5% | — | 2025-11-21 | -31 | 6% | — |
EHC
USPH
ATIP
55%
HCA
THC
CYH
25%
UNH
DVA
FMS.DE
20%
|
| Driven Brands | ADW Capital | US | 14 | 12.76 | 11.22 | 12.88 | — | — | 12.9% | 12.9% | — | — | 2026-03-25 | 0 | -8% | — |
VVV
MNRO
BYD.TO
|
| Taiyo | KKR | Japan | 14 | 5,428 | 5,919 | 4,935 | 4,750 | -12.5% | -19.9% | -19.9% | -3.7% | — | 2026-02-25 | -126 | 4% | — |
DD
APD
4063.T
MRK.DE
|
| DCC | Energy Capital Partners | UK | 14 | 52.05 | 59.87 | 58.90 | — | — | -1.6% | -1.6% | — | — | 2026-04-24 | 0 | 23% | — |
VLO
PSX
MPC
DINO
80%
GWW
FAST
MSM
POOL
20%
|
| InMode | — | US | 13 | 15.43 | 14.78 | 13.98 | — | — | -5.7% | -5.7% | — | — | 2026-01-25 | 0 | -7% | — |
1696.HK
CUTR
VERO
100%
UL
PG
4911.T
4452.T
25%
|
| Predictive Discovery | Perseus Mining | Australia | 12 | 0.73 | 0.79 | 1.00 | — | — | 21.3% | 21.3% | — | — | 2025-12-03 | -331 | 0% | — |
NEM
AEM
AU
NST.AX
|
| WPP | Havas | UK | 12 | 2.87 | 2.01 | 2.59 | — | — | 22.4% | 22.4% | — | — | 2025-11-13 | 0 | 6% | — |
OMC
IPG
4324.T
50%
TTD
PUBM
DV
CRTO
50%
|
| Abivax | Eli Lilly | France | 11 | 99.00 | 101.25 | 102.10 | 191.00 | 92.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 87.1% | 1% | 2026-01-09 | 13,520 | 3% | -9% |
GILD
AMGN
BIIB
REGN
|
| Abivax | AstraZeneca | France | 11 | 105.00 | 114.53 | 102.10 | 176.00 | 67.6% | -12.2% | -12.2% | 72.4% | — | 2025-12-09 | 9,446 | 2% | — |
GILD
AMGN
BIIB
REGN
|
| Puig | Estée Lauder | Spain | 11 | 15.57 | 14.66 | 17.24 | — | — | 14.9% | 14.9% | — | — | 2026-03-23 | 0 | -13% | — |
COTY
OR.PA
72%
COTY
ULTA
ELF
OR.PA
17%
UL
PG
4911.T
4452.T
11%
|
| MarineMax | — | US | 9 | 31.00 | 31.39 | 34.16 | — | — | 8.1% | 8.1% | — | — | 2026-02-25 | 0 | 6% | — |
BC
MPX
MCFT
MBUU
60%
BC
ONEW
FR.PA
MCFT
25%
SUN
ELS
CWH
BC
15%
|
| Genco Shipping & Trading | Diana Shipping | US | 8 | 17.90 | 24.12 | 25.11 | 23.50 | 31.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | -6.4% | — | 2025-11-21 | -66 | 3% | — |
2343.HK
SB
KEX
9107.T
|
| Funko | — | US | 6 | 4.42 | 4.23 | 5.21 | — | — | 18.8% | 18.8% | — | — | 2026-02-19 | 0 | 6% | — |
7832.T
HAS
MAT
0151.HK
|
| Picton Property Income | LondonMetric Property | UK | 5 | 0.77 | 0.61 | 0.71 | — | — | 14.2% | 14.2% | — | — | 2026-03-23 | 0 | -23% | — |
WPC
VNO
ARE
BPYU
|
| Iress | — | Australia | 4 | 8.77 | 6.61 | 5.86 | — | — | -12.9% | -12.9% | — | — | 2025-11-07 | 0 | -10% | — |
NDAQ
LSE.L
ICE
CBOE
80%
NDAQ
LSE.L
ICE
CBOE
20%
|
| Centerspace | — | US | 4 | 67.65 | 54.05 | 68.68 | — | — | 21.3% | 21.3% | — | — | 2026-05-11 | 0 | — | — |
CPT
MAA
ESS
UDR
|
| PolyPeptide | KKR | Switzerland | 3 | 35.90 | 34.38 | 37.85 | — | — | 9.2% | 9.2% | — | — | 2026-04-13 | 0 | -3% | — |
IQV
ICLR
CRL
MEDP
|
| Playtika | — | US | 3 | 3.20 | 2.93 | 3.67 | — | — | 20.0% | 20.0% | — | — | 2026-04-06 | 0 | -1% | — |
NTES
RBLX
9766.T
9697.T
|
| Wacker Neuson | Doosan Bobcat | Germany | 1 | 22.40 | 38.03 | 18.50 | — | — | -105.6% | -105.6% | — | — | 2025-06-13 | 0 | — | — |
1157.HK
KMTUY
DE
CNHI
65%
CAT
6301.T
VOLV-B.ST
CNHI
35%
|
| Tyro Payments | Stripe | Australia | 1 | 0.70 | 0.36 | 0.69 | — | — | 47.6% | 47.6% | — | — | 2025-04-28 | 0 | -9% | — |
NAYX
GPN
ADYEN.AS
|
| Reservoir Media | Wesbild | US | 0 | 8.94 | 11.03 | 10.21 | 10.50 | 17.4% | -8.0% | -8.0% | 2.8% | — | 2026-02-26 | 0 | 5% | — |
UMG.AS
6758.T
WMG
LYV
|
| Information Services | QIC | Canada | 0 | 44.13 | 46.85 | 45.98 | — | — | -1.9% | — | — | — | 2026-02-13 | 0 | 25% | — |
PLTR
SNOW
ESTC
CLVT
60%
OTEX.TO
DOCU
LZ
NUIX.AX
25%
ACN
NOW
WIT
KD
15%
|
| Codere | — | US | 0 | 8.57 | 8.39 | 9.04 | — | — | 7.2% | 7.2% | — | — | 2026-03-25 | 0 | — | — |
LVS
MGM
WYNN
88%
DKNG
KIND-SDB.ST
FLTR.L
888.L
12%
|
| Intuitive Investments Group | Acceler8 Ventures | UK | 0 | 1.72 | 1.67 | 2.20 | — | — | 24.1% | 24.1% | — | — | 2026-04-06 | 0 | 1% | — |
EVO.ST
PTEC.L
GIG.OL
1X1.DE
|
| Aichi Financial Group | San Ju San Financial Group | US | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| Orla Mining | Equinox Gold | US | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | — | — | — |